NYT + Math = Stupid Factoid

Recently The New York Times reported on a medical study that indicated taking anti-retroviral medication before engaging in risky behavior can reduce the transmission rate of the HIV virus by 90%. This is in and of itself is a very significant finding worthy of being reported in The New York Times, but they could not just leave it. To make the story punchier the article states that mathematical models indicate that implementing the usage of preventative anti-retrovirals in 90% of people engaging in risky behavior could drop the HIV transmission rate by 80%. This is an amazing result. It caused me to wonder how would one setup a model to dynamically follow the HIV transmission with varying parameters such as improved detection, increased risky behavior from better protection, etc. Then I realized the model.

90% reduction in transmission x 90% drug utilization = 81% reduced transmission

Stupid reporter. He called this simple calculation a mathematical model to add heft to what is essential a stab in the dark, and make the story sound more scientifically important. If I can find the story again I will link to it.